When will my team actually try to win the World Series?

A Cleveland Guardians fan's reaction to the Civale trade and the state of the franchise

The Cleveland Guardians are only 1 game out of first place in their division. They won 92 games last year en route to an AL Central division title — their fourth since 2016 — and were a game away from the ALCS. So why would they trade starting pitcher Aaron Civale, who has posted a 2.34 ERA overall and a 1.45 ERA in July?

In return for Civale, the Tampa Bay Rays sent Kyle Manzardo — a first-base prospect batting a lowly .238 with a .783 OPS this year in Triple-A ball. Despite the concerning Triple-A numbers and the resultant log jam at 1B/DH with Josh Naylor, Josh Bell and Manzardo in the mix, I like the trade. The Guardians need hitting, and according to Zack Meisel’s clear-eyed Athletic article about the state of the franchise, a couple of pro evaluators were surprised the Rays gave up a piece as valuable as MLB Pipeline’s number 37 overall prospect.

Some Guardians fans were upset that Cleveland traded a red-hot starter. And indeed, Civale’s exit means Cleveland’s starters will be majority rookies, with Logan Allen, Gavin Williams, and Tanner Bibee headlining a group in which Noah Syndergaard is the only veteran. Syndergaard arrived via trade with the Los Angeles Dodgers less than a week ago.

By some miracle, Syndergaard put on a Guardians uniform and was suddenly able to pitch again despite posting a 7.16 ERA with the Dodgers. He went 5.1 IP and only gave up one run to a deep, star-studded Houston Astros lineup before exiting with an injury. Syndergaard’s Guardians debut has convinced me that Cleveland’s coaching staff can turn anyone into a 3.80 ERA guy.

Speaking of a 3.80 ERA, the aforementioned Guardians rookies all have earned-run averages below that mark. Bibee, Williams, and Allen have 3.11, 3.35, and 3.70 ERAs, respectively. But young pitchers tend to get a shorter leash so they don’t hurt their futures by throwing too much too early. How will the Guardians navigate that situation if they’re vying for a division title into early September and beyond? If at least one of Bieber, McKenzie, or Quantrill doesn’t return soon, then I would suggest prayer.

Guardians fans lamenting the Civale trade are not so foolish. Cleveland hasn’t been a contender since 2017, and if you’ve decided that your team can’t win the World Series, a division banner could be a nice consolation prize. But I’m a young fan, so I think in terms of what moves my team closer to, or further from, a championship. I believe the Civale trade moves Cleveland closer to a championship.

Let’s play through a scenario real quick. Let’s assume he would have continued the July hot streak into August and September; let’s also assume that Civale would be the difference between 80 and 84 wins — the likely gap between missing the playoffs and the AL Central Division title. Would it matter? Would Cleveland have any chance to win even the AL Pennant?

No. Furthermore, you could replace Civale with Bob Gibson in his prime, and the Guardians would still have zero chance of winning the World Series. 

Despite boasting the league’s 6th-lowest team ERA, the Guardians are tied for 25th in runs scored. They are incapable of hitting. The only serious hitters on the team are José Ramírez and Josh Naylor. Everyone else is somewhere between third-worst-in-the-league (Myles Straw) and slightly below average (Josh Bell).

The inevitable result of being really good at one half of baseball and really bad at the other is a .500 team — Cleveland is 53-54. 

Looking at Guardians Twitter after a predictable 7-3 loss to a superior Astros team was comical. Manager Terry Francona’s critics pilloried the Guardians’ skipper for *checks notes* not pinch-hitting for Straw. Yes. Because choosing David Fry or Tyler Freeman over Straw was the difference in a game the Guardians were losing by 5 runs at that point — albeit with the bases loaded, no outs, and the top of the order coming up afterward.

On the merits, I agree that Fry or Freeman should have pinch-hit in that spot. But focusing on such minutiae misses the point. The real problem is a player like Straw even being on the roster. He’s one of the worst hitters in baseball and should not be starting for any team considering a playoff berth. Straw has gone 1,016 at-bats since his last home run, which he hit on August 26, 2021. But Straw isn’t the whole problem or even half of it.

Mike Zunino was a total dud of a signing; Andrés Giménez and Steven Kwan regressed significantly from last season; Bo Naylor, Tyler Freeman, and Gabriel Arias have potential but aren’t there yet.

The offense’s ineptitude leaves fans wondering whom to blame. Some might blame Francona for stubbornly starting players like Straw or the recently-traded Amed Rosario. Others might blame President of Baseball Operations Chris Antonetti for not having a clear vision for the franchise’s future. I blame the Dolans — the Guardians’ majority owners — and their obstinate refusal to spend the money necessary to field a World-Series-caliber offense.

The Guardians have the league’s 26th-highest payroll. That means they can afford to make approximately zero mistakes if they want to win it all. Yes, I realize the Rays are 27th in payroll, and the Orioles are 29th, but I would be shocked if either won the World Series this year. Moneyball wins regular season games, not championships. Spending doesn’t automatically translate to contention — see New York Mets — but it’s not a mystery that the four teams I think have a chance to win the World Series are all top 10 in spending — Rangers, Dodgers, Braves, and Astros. The Guardians are light-years away from any of those teams.

The Guardians have had much more success than the Pittsburgh Pirates since 2018, but both organizations do little except serve as farm teams for contenders. Both teams are routine deadline sellers that trade one currently-good major leaguer for a might-be-good-later prospect who will hopefully become a currently-good major leaguer to sell for the next might-be-good-later prospect. So it goes. 

The Guardians and Pirates both have notoriously cheap owners who refuse to spend the money necessary to hoist the Commissioner’s Trophy. Both teams have fanbases who spend every waking minute hoping that their owner sells the team. I often tell a few friends who are Pirates fans that we’re not so different you and I.

Right now, I’m wondering when my team is going to try to win the World Series. I don’t mean a half-hearted “let’s build on last year” after an early playoff exit. I don’t mean a “let’s limp into the playoffs and hope” daydream. I mean actually having a chance to win the World Series. A real chance.

I suspect that time won’t come until David Blitzer takes over from the Dolans as majority owner of the Guardians. At that time, it might be that Manzardo, George Valera, Arias, and other Cleveland prospects are finally blossoming into starters or even all-stars — i.e., players capable of hitting a home run more frequently than once every 1,000 at-bats. Perhaps Williams, Bibee, Allen, and McKenzie will be anchoring an elite starting rotation. If Blitzer makes a few splashy signings that put Cleveland over the top, then he might be able to take credit for postseason successes with roots primarily traceable to the Dolan era.

But for now, the Guardians are low-ceiling snooze specialists. I recently told a friend that the Guardians are a great team to take a nap to because they neither score nor give up a lot of runs. Until Cleveland’s ownership starts spending money, nothing will change. Other fans can carp about not pinch-hitting for Myles Straw while down five runs in the top of the ninth. As for me, you can wake me up when ownership makes a concerted effort to win the World Series.

All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference, Spotrac, and Baseball Savant unless otherwise indicated.